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Need Help With This Statistic


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#1 JaneWhoLovesRain

 
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Posted 28 October 2012 - 03:57 PM

On the opening page of this web site is the following statement "If a person with the disorder continues to eat gluten, studies have shown that he or she will increase their chances of gastrointestinal cancer by a factor of 40 to 100 times that of the normal population."

I wonder if someone could explain this to me because I am not sure I am reading it right. Does it mean that if the chances of a "normal" individual getting gi cancer are 1 in 100, by increaing their chances up to100 times, does that mean chances are now 100 in 100 if they continue to eat gluten?

Please tell me I am not reading this right! :angry: I'm concerned. I now suspect I've had gluten problems my entire life but didn't stop eating it until the age of 56 (ish). Feel like I am doomed.

Jane
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Gluten free since 2010 when it was suggested that my vertigo/dizzy problems may be from gluten. Tested negative for DH in April of 2012. However I'm not convinced I don't have DH as pictures and description pretty much match what I have.
11/2012 tested positve for 1 of the 2 celiac genes

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#2 rosetapper23

 
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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:12 PM

Hmmm...I read this to mean that, during your lifetime, if you continue to eat gluten and if, say, a person would normally have a 1% chance of developing gastrointestinal cancer, then you would have a 40%-100% chance of developing it. However, since you've stopped eating gluten, your chances should now return to those of the general population. I would assume that you have little to worry about now that you eat gluten free--take care!
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#3 Jestgar

 
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Posted 28 October 2012 - 04:36 PM

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of getting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.
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#4 nvsmom

 
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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:34 PM

Jestgar has that right. :) It's an increased risk but not a scary one.
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#5 mushroom

 
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Posted 29 October 2012 - 05:51 PM

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of cetting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.


Jess took a statistics class last year :rolleyes:
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Caffeine free 1973
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Diagnosed psoriatic arthritis 2004
Self-diagnosed gluten intolerant, gluten-free Nov. 2007
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#6 ravenwoodglass

 
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Posted 30 October 2012 - 06:50 AM

It is scarey but do keep in mind that by the time you have been gluten free for 5 years your chances, from what I understand, go down to the same as the non-celiac population.
If you are very concerned and you haven't had your over 50 colonoscopy scheduling one soon with your GI doctor could set your mind at ease.
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"I will try again tommorrow" (Mary Anne Radmacher)


celiac 49 years - Misdiagnosed for 45
Blood tested and repeatedly negative
Diagnosed by Allergist with elimination diet and diagnosis confirmed by GI in 2002
Misdiagnoses for 15 years were IBS-D, ataxia, migraines, anxiety, depression, fibromyalgia, parathesias, arthritis, livedo reticularis, hairloss, premature menopause, osteoporosis, kidney damage, diverticulosis, prediabetes and ulcers, dermatitis herpeformis
All bold resoved or went into remission with proper diagnosis of Celiac November 2002
Some residual nerve damage remains as of 2006- this has continued to resolve after eliminating soy in 2007

Mother died of celiac related cancer at 56
Twin brother died as a result of autoimmune liver destruction at age 15

Children 2 with Ulcers, GERD, Depression, , 1 with DH, 1 with severe growth stunting (male adult 5 feet)both finally diagnosed Celiac through blood testing and 1 with endo 6 months after Mom


Positive to Soy and Casien also Aug 2007

Gluten Sensitivity Gene Test Aug 2007
HLA-DQB1 Molecular analysis, Allele 1 0303

HLA-DQB1 Molecular analysis, Allele 2 0303

Serologic equivalent: HLA-DQ 3,3 (Subtype 9,9)

#7 JaneWhoLovesRain

 
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Posted 30 October 2012 - 05:13 PM

Jestgar - thank you for setting me straight! Your way sounds so much better than my way.
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Gluten free since 2010 when it was suggested that my vertigo/dizzy problems may be from gluten. Tested negative for DH in April of 2012. However I'm not convinced I don't have DH as pictures and description pretty much match what I have.
11/2012 tested positve for 1 of the 2 celiac genes




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