Jump to content

  • You have found your celiac tribe! Join us and ask questions in our forum, share your story, and connect with others.


  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A1):
    Celiac.com Sponsor (A1-M):

Is this right?

pag794

Recommended Posts

pag794 Rookie
pag794
Posted

I was browsing the University of Chicago celiac page, and came across this post.  The math doesn't seem right to me.  If the ttg test is 97-98% specific, doesn't that mean that out of every 100 people who have elevated ttg, 97-98% do have celiac, and 3-4% do not have celiac?  The way they explain it, the specificity would only be 25%, which is definitely not right.  

image.png

Celiac.com Sponsor (A8):
Celiac.com Sponsor (A8):

Celiac.com Sponsor (A8-M):


cyclinglady Grand Master
cyclinglady
Posted

Alas, my training is in business/marketing!  But I found this link that could help!

Open Original Shared Link

Oh the wonders of YouTube:

 

 

Sugarcube Rookie
Sugarcube
Posted

Thats correct, ttg has a relatively high accuracy compared to other celiac blood tests. However it should not be solely relied  upon in isolation. As many other conitions can elevate the ttg.  Its also possible to have a false negative.

 

 

 

17 hours ago, pag794 said:

I was browsing the University of Chicago celiac page, and came across this post.  The math doesn't seem right to me.  If the ttg test is 97-98% specific, doesn't that mean that out of every 100 people who have elevated ttg, 97-98% do have celiac, and 3-4% do not have celiac?  The way they explain it, the specificity would only be 25%, which is definitely not right.  

image.png

 

RMJ Mentor
RMJ
Posted

I used to work with these calculations but it has been a few years!  They are technically correct about the 1 in 4 IF (a big if) you are testing one hundred people in the general population, i.e., people that are NOT going to the doctor because of symptoms but are just chosen randomly off the street.  The 1 in 4 is the positive predictive value and depends VERY much on the population being tested.  If you test 100 people who are suspected to have celiac, the positive predictive value (proportion of positives that are true positives, i.e., that really do have celiac) will be much, much higher.

This is why screening tests in asymptomatic people for disorders with a low prevalence are not always a great idea.  Even scientists often have a poor understanding of these concepts.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Get Celiac.com Updates:
    Support Celiac.com:
    Join eNewsletter
    Donate
  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A17):
    Celiac.com Sponsor (A17):



    Celiac.com Sponsors (A17-M):



  • Recent Activity

    1. knitty kitty
      - knitty kitty replied to HectorConvector's topic in Related Issues & Disorders
      361

      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      My dad had an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm. Fortunately, it was discovered during an exam. The doctor could feel my dad's heart beating in his stomach. The aneurysm burst when the doctor first touched it in surgery. Since he was already hooked up to the bypass machine, my dad survived ten more years. Close call! Triple A's can press on the nerves in...
    2. Aretaeus Cappadocia
      - Aretaeus Cappadocia replied to HectorConvector's topic in Related Issues & Disorders
      361

      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      You have an odd story there. To me, the mechanical trigger suggests a mechanical problem and lower leg pain is a classic sciatica symptom. The fact that the clear mechanical linkage is no longer there does not take away from the fact that it was - maybe something shifted and the simple alignment is no longer there. There's also a good chance I am wrong and...
    3. HectorConvector
      - HectorConvector replied to HectorConvector's topic in Related Issues & Disorders
      361

      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      Oddly this effect has gone now, just happened yesterday evening, the nerve pain is now back to its usual "unpredictable" random self again - but that was the only time I ever had some mechanical trigger for it, don't know why! There's no (or wasn't) actual pain in my neck - it was inside the leg, but when I looked down, now though, the leg pain just comes...
    4. HectorConvector
      - HectorConvector replied to HectorConvector's topic in Related Issues & Disorders
      361

      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      I had MRI scan a few years ago showing everything normal, and now it's no longer triggering the nerve pain when I bow my head today - it only seemed to happen yesterday, and that was the only time it happened! Just seemed weird as no movement has caused my usual nerve pain before. It's normally just random.
    5. AutomatedGlutenEjector
      - AutomatedGlutenEjector commented on Scott Adams's article in Latest Research
      71

      COVID-19 a Possible Trigger for Celiac Disease in Those with Genetic Risk

      This hypothesis certainly lines up with my experience. Avoided getting Covid until August 2022. Celiac diagnosis three months later, and they think they caught it early (not a ton of damage in my EGD). I'd suspected the connection before, so it's nice to see researchers are interested in this question.
  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A19):

  • Member Statistics

    • Total Members
      134,063
    • Most Online (within 30 mins)
      10,442
    Juls9503
    Newest Member
    Juls9503
    Joined
  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A20):
  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A22):

  • Forum Statistics

    • Total Topics
      121.7k
    • Total Posts
      1m
  • Celiac.com Sponsor (A21):

  • Upcoming Events

  • Posts

    • knitty kitty
      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      By knitty kitty · Posted

      My dad had an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.  Fortunately, it was discovered during an exam.  The doctor could feel my dad's heart beating in his stomach.  The aneurysm burst when the doctor first touched it in surgery.  Since he was already hooked up to the bypass machine, my dad survived ten more years.  Close call! Triple A's can press on the nerves in the spinal cord causing leg pain.  I'm wondering if bowing the head might have increased the pressure on an aneurysm and then the nerves.   https://gulfcoastsurgeons.com/understanding-abdominal-aortic-aneurysm-symptoms-and-causes/ Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Presenting as a Claudication https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4040638/
    • Aretaeus Cappadocia
      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      By Aretaeus Cappadocia · Posted

      You have an odd story there. To me, the mechanical trigger suggests a mechanical problem and lower leg pain is a classic sciatica symptom. The fact that the clear mechanical linkage is no longer there does not take away from the fact that it was - maybe something shifted and the simple alignment is no longer there. There's also a good chance I am wrong and it's something else entirely. @Scott Adams's mention of shingles is interesting. It seems possible but unlikely to me, but who knows. However, I am writing here to reinforce the idea of getting the shingles vaccine. Ask anyone who has ever had shingles and they will bend your ear telling you how bad it is. I watched my wife go through it and it scared the bejeebers out of me. Even if you had the chicken pox vaccine, you really want to get the shingles vaccine.
    • HectorConvector
      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      By HectorConvector · Posted

      Oddly this effect has gone now, just happened yesterday evening, the nerve pain is now back to its usual "unpredictable" random self again - but that was the only time I ever had some mechanical trigger for it, don't know why! There's no (or wasn't) actual pain in my neck - it was inside the leg, but when I looked down, now though, the leg pain just comes and goes randomly as before again.
    • HectorConvector
      Terrible Neurological Symptoms

      By HectorConvector · Posted

      I had MRI scan a few years ago showing everything normal, and now it's no longer triggering the nerve pain when I bow my head today - it only seemed to happen yesterday, and that was the only time it happened! Just seemed weird as no movement has caused my usual nerve pain before. It's normally just random.
    • akebog
      Fusilli Pizzeria, Miller Place, NY

      By akebog · Posted

      Very good pizzeria with small dining room in back of the restaurant. The owner's daughter has celiac & they have gluten free pizza & a gluten free menu. Some items from the regular menu can be made gluten free also. They have a lunch menu which we ordered from & my chicken with spinach & mozzarella over gluten-free penne was delicious. They also have Tuesday night pasta specials & Thursday night chicken pasta specials. We plan on going back for dinner soon.
×
×
  • Create New...