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After Rising 11% in 2015, Will US Gluten-free Retail Sales Slow to 6%?

After high double-digit growth, is global gluten-free market set to cool?


Photo: CC--Markheybo

Celiac.com 01/27/2017 - US retail sales of gluten-free products rose 11% in 2015, and are predicted to rise a more modest 6% to $1.66bn in 2016, according to a new report from Packaged Facts, which predicts that as the market matures, growth rates are "expected to slow considerably."

To provide context, Packaged Facts notes that growth rates have slowed from 81% in 2013 and 30% in 2014 to 11% in 2015, and predicts they will settle at a steady 5-6% a year in the next five years.

Unlike some other market research reports, which include everything with a gluten-free label in their market definitions, even those product that typically contain no gluten, Packaged Facts does not. The Packaged Facts reports are notable because they focus more closely on traditionally grain-based product categories: Salty Snacks, Crackers, Fresh Bread, Pasta, Cold (ready-to-eat) Cereal, Baking Mixes, Cookies, Flour, and Frozen Bread/Dough.

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They do not cover "naturally gluten-free foods," such as potato chips or ready-to-eat popcorn, and do not include things like gluten free frozen pizza, lasagna, stuffing mix or entrees

The latest report notes that, while the market is maturing, it is still quite fragmented. Packaged Facts notes that only Hain Celestial and Pinnacle Foods have market shares exceeding 10%.

Read more about the Packaged Facts report.

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