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Jonbo

Skeptics: Food Crisis In Second Half Of 2009

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This isn't 100% related to Celiac but I figured some could get a small chuckle out of what skeptics are saying, since this will probably not affect us (well, family wise it could if there are non-celiac's that are under the same roof) ;)

As of July 15th Bulgarian farmers had harvested around 30% of the nation's wheat crop, with yields averaging 3.2 MT/hectare, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

They've trimmed their final wheat production estimate from 3.6-3.7 MMT to 3.5-3.6 MMT, around 20% lower than last season's output.

Around 92% of the nation's barley has been cut with yields averaging 3.4 MT/hectare, the Ministry say, with final production estimated at 755,000 MT, 16% down on last year's crop of 900,000 MT.

Argentine farmers will plant just 2.6 million hectares of winter wheat for the 2009/10 season, according to Oil World. That's 200,000 hectares down on their last estimate and a stunning 2.1 million less than was planted in 2008/09.

Last season's drought-ravaged crop only managed to yield 2 MT/hectare, and subsoil moisture levels have been depleted even further since then.

Of course it's not all about drought, part of the reason behind lower plantings is a two fingered salute to the government and their export restrictions.

Brazil, the world's third largest wheat importer, bought 51,000 MT of US wheat last week, that's more US wheat than it bought in the entire first six months of the year, despite a 10% import tax imposed by the government on purchases from outside the Mercosul bloc.

Brazil's normal favoured wheat supplier is Argentina, but they of course have had a disastrous 2008 crop and are about to conclude the planting of another one.

With the Brazilian real strengthening against the dollar, millers that are being forced to look outside Mercosul for supplies are finding US wheat fitting the bill quite nicely.

Much more info (just skim some) available here.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/07/worl...econd-half.html

Wouldn't it be ironic if foods crammed full of wheat, etc...shot to the same price as gluten-free foods are now or even higher. Let's say this somehow came true and wheat prices became so high, that manufacturers look at how to cut out wheat/barley, etc... from things that don't need it. Could it open up the possibility of more foods we could eat again? Possibly. Would it last? Probably not since wheat prices would eventually go down again and thus manufacturers put it back into unnecessary things.

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And besides, if "regular" people stopped eating wheat and barley they might start eating what we eat, making them even more expensive until the growers of those grains started growing more. Heads we lose, tails we lose :(

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And besides, if "regular" people stopped eating wheat and barley they might start eating what we eat, making them even more expensive until the growers of those grains started growing more. Heads we lose, tails we lose :(

It also might have the opposite effect. If there is more of the grains we use that are planted then the supplies would be larger and usually when there is a large supply of something the cost of that thing goes down not up.

There is also a wheat blight happening that is wiping out whole crops. Similar to what happened with the potatoe blight. If a way is not found to control it there may be much less wheat around and the cost of regular wheat products will go sky high. Wheat eaters may see their bread go up to $5 a loaf.

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I have read about the "wheat crisis". Another factor is land being changed from food production to ethanal production. I would foresee a scarcity of wheat would raise the price of other grains, at least in the short term, and my rice flour will be even more expensive. But, I've got soooo many real problems to deal with, I can't bother myself with problems that might occur.

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