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EpiCast Report Forecasts Celiac Disease Epidemiology to 2023

Celiac.com 11/05/2015 - Professional reports on various aspects celiac disease and gluten-free issues can be helpful for numerous people seeking to better understand what the current and future landscape will look like. 

Photo: CC--GotCreditThe latest such report is the EpiCast Report: Celiac Disease – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023. The celiac disease EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors, co-morbidities, and the global and historical trends for celiac disease in the six major markets (6MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and UK).

In that report, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the number of total prevalent cases of celiac disease in the 6MM is expected to grow to 8.08 million cases in 2023 at a rate of 3.92% per year during the forecast period.

The number of diagnosed prevalent cases in the 6MM is expected to increase by 4.61% over the next decade to 1.11 million cases in 2023.

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According to the literature, GlobalDatas forecast and analysis is based on a thorough literature review and from primary research results, followed by a careful review of selected secondary research studies and validation of study findings with primary research by GlobalData epidemiologists.

The report stands out primarily because GlobalData epidemiologists maintained a consistent case-finding definition and forecasting methodology for celiac disease throughout the 6MM, which allows for a meaningful comparison of the total and diagnosed prevalent cases of celiac disease in these markets.

The report further breaks down total prevalent cases of celiac disease by sex, thus providing a detailed analysis of the patient population characteristic of celiac disease. Additionally, GlobalData epidemiologists also provided a realistic trend forecast for the total and diagnosed prevalence of celiac disease based on insights gained through the analysis of historical data.

Lastly, the report also includes a comprehensive 10-year epidemiological celiac disease forecast broken down by sex and age (0-19 years, 20-29 years, 30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and =70 years), and a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed prevalent cases of celiac disease in the 6MM.

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@cyclinglady thanks for checking in Restricted diet didn't do much. Still had some VA last time they checked. Heath still otherwise fine, so RCD remains unlikely. My sxs kick in lockstep with life stress, so that kind of points to some general IBS stuff on top of celiac disease. Very doubtful I'm getting any gluten in, but fingers crossed my system is just a little hyper-vigilant, as I ponder on this thread.

I have always noticed that the table wine in Europe is pretty damn good! I am a wine lover and so is my husband but he does like his Green's beer.

The reason they set the limit at 20ppms is that through scientific study, they have proven that the vast majority of people with Celiac Disease do not have an autoimmune reaction to amounts below that......it is a safe limit for most. Also, just because that limit is set at 20ppms, does not mean that gluten-free products contain that amount of gluten. Testing for lower levels becomes more expensive with each increment down closer to 0-5ppms, which translates into higher priced products. Unless you eat a lot of processed gluten-free food, which can have a cumulative affect for some, most people do well with the 20ppm limit.

I'm in the Houston area so I'm assuming there are plenty of specialists around, though finding one that accepts my insurance might be hard. This might sound dumb, but do I search for a celiac specialist?? I'm so new to this and want to feel confident in what is/isn't wrong with my daughter. I'm with you on trusting the specialist to know the current research.

Hi VB Thats sounds like a good plan. Would it help to know that a frustrating experience in seeking diagnosis isn't unusual With your IGG result I'm sure a part of you is still wondering if they are right to exclude celiac. I know just how you feel as I too had a negative biopsy, but by then a gluten challenge had already established how severely it affected me. So I was convinced I would be found to be celiac and in a funny way disappointed not to get the 'official' stamp of approval. Testing isnt perfect, you've already learned of the incomplete celiac tests offered by some organisations and the biopsy itself can only see so much. If you react positively to the gluten free diet it may mean you're celiac but not yet showing damage in a place they've checked, or it may be that you're non celiac gluten sensitive, which is a label that for a different but perhaps related condition which has only recently been recognised and for which research is still very much underway. We may not be able to say which but the good news is all of your symptoms: were also mine and they all resolved with the gluten free diet. So don't despair, you may still have found your answer, it just may be a bit wordier than celiac! Keep a journal when you're on the diet, it may help you track down your own answers. Best of luck!