Need Help With This Statistic

[JaneWhoLovesRain]

On the opening page of this web site is the following statement "If a person with the disorder continues to eat gluten, studies have shown that he or she will increase their chances of gastrointestinal cancer by a factor of 40 to 100 times that of the normal population."

I wonder if someone could explain this to me because I am not sure I am reading it right. Does it mean that if the chances of a "normal" individual getting gi cancer are 1 in 100, by increaing their chances up to100 times, does that mean chances are now 100 in 100 if they continue to eat gluten?

Please tell me I am not reading this right! I'm concerned. I now suspect I've had gluten problems my entire life but didn't stop eating it until the age of 56 (ish). Feel like I am doomed.

Jane

[rosetapper23]

Hmmm...I read this to mean that, during your lifetime, if you continue to eat gluten and if, say, a person would normally have a 1% chance of developing gastrointestinal cancer, then you would have a 40%-100% chance of developing it. However, since you've stopped eating gluten, your chances should now return to those of the general population. I would assume that you have little to worry about now that you eat gluten free--take care!

[Jestgar]

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of getting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.

[nvsmom]

Jestgar has that right. It's an increased risk but not a scary one.

[mushroom]

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of cetting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.

Jess took a statistics class last year

[ravenwoodglass]

It is scarey but do keep in mind that by the time you have been gluten free for 5 years your chances, from what I understand, go down to the same as the non-celiac population.

If you are very concerned and you haven't had your over 50 colonoscopy scheduling one soon with your GI doctor could set your mind at ease.

[JaneWhoLovesRain]

Jestgar - thank you for setting me straight! Your way sounds so much better than my way.