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Need Help With This Statistic

JaneWhoLovesRain

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JaneWhoLovesRain Enthusiast
JaneWhoLovesRain
Posted

On the opening page of this web site is the following statement "If a person with the disorder continues to eat gluten, studies have shown that he or she will increase their chances of gastrointestinal cancer by a factor of 40 to 100 times that of the normal population."

I wonder if someone could explain this to me because I am not sure I am reading it right. Does it mean that if the chances of a "normal" individual getting gi cancer are 1 in 100, by increaing their chances up to100 times, does that mean chances are now 100 in 100 if they continue to eat gluten?

Please tell me I am not reading this right! :angry: I'm concerned. I now suspect I've had gluten problems my entire life but didn't stop eating it until the age of 56 (ish). Feel like I am doomed.

Jane

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rosetapper23 Explorer
rosetapper23
Posted

Hmmm...I read this to mean that, during your lifetime, if you continue to eat gluten and if, say, a person would normally have a 1% chance of developing gastrointestinal cancer, then you would have a 40%-100% chance of developing it. However, since you've stopped eating gluten, your chances should now return to those of the general population. I would assume that you have little to worry about now that you eat gluten free--take care!

Jestgar Rising Star
Jestgar
Posted

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of getting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.

nvsmom Community Regular
nvsmom
Posted

Jestgar has that right. :) It's an increased risk but not a scary one.

mushroom Proficient
mushroom
Posted
  On 10/29/2012 at 12:36 AM, Jestgar said:

100% of 1 is one. So 100% increase in risk means double the chance. If you have a 1% lifetime risk of cetting a cancer, and you engage in a behaviour that increase the risk 40 to 100 fold, you have increased your lifetime risk to 1.4% to 2%.

Jess took a statistics class last year :rolleyes:

ravenwoodglass Mentor
ravenwoodglass
Posted

It is scarey but do keep in mind that by the time you have been gluten free for 5 years your chances, from what I understand, go down to the same as the non-celiac population.

If you are very concerned and you haven't had your over 50 colonoscopy scheduling one soon with your GI doctor could set your mind at ease.

JaneWhoLovesRain Enthusiast
JaneWhoLovesRain
Posted
  • Author

Jestgar - thank you for setting me straight! Your way sounds so much better than my way.

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